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Probability Management Services



Services Introduction

Project Services intro

Consultancy Services intro

Additional Detail

QRA, simulation and decision support

Project Economics


We list below some of the specialist probability management services we undertake for our clients. It is ofen difficult for smaller companies to maintain the necessary specialist personnel and contracting out can be a very attractive option. Larger organisations may well have the specialist capabilities at head office but it may be difficult for the operating subsidiaries to gain access to this.

APT will provide any of the services mentioned below on a contract basis, or will train our Clients' personnel in the use of these techniques.

Risk Management

Risk management is one of the most important activities for all parties engaged in projects.

Simple, qualitative procedures are adequate for many situations provided they are properly executed. The action of performing the risk identification exercise and determining the required response is in itself very beneficial.

We advocate the use of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) on larger projects because it gives an insight into where the true risks lie and their magnitude. By definition the numbers aren't exact, but the process of performing the exercise together with the results will enable the project management team to manage risks much more effectively.

We are very experienced in the real world of projects and highly trained in risk analysis / management. Whilst we use a powerful analysis system (the Vanguard Business Analytics suite), many of the applications and techniques have been developed in-house and aren't commonly available.

We will work in whatever capacity our Clients require, including:

  • auditing existing risk management practices
  • conducting a full risk analysis exercise
  • performing risk management training of the Client's personnel.

More details of our services appear on accompanying pages.

Decision Analysis

Decision analysis covers a range of techniques, often closely allied to risk management, which enable soundly-based decisions to be taken. If the options can be given a uniform metric (usually monetary) and probabilities can be assigned to the possible outcomes, then quantitative methods can be used. In other cases this isn't possible and the evaluations are less precise (e.g. on a scale of 1 - 10) however the decisions must still be taken in a consistent and structured manner.

We maintain the software, procedures and experience to undertake decision analysis using any of the commonly used decision models.

Project Economics

The key decisions for the sanctioning of new projects are most often based on economics. Whilst simple metrics (e.g. ROI or payback period) may be adequate for smaller projects, larger projects invariably demand much more sophisticated economic models (further information appears on the accompanying page on Project Economics)

APT are specialists in economic modelling. We prepare models at all levels from simple "desktop" models for individual managers through to enterprise level models with input from various company departments. The models we prepare are very transparent and properly documented, to maximise their value to the managers who will use their results.


Case Study

Platform installation

Risk Management in Practice

A recent trend in the oil industry has been the move to "EPCI" contracts in which a main contractor is responsible for Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Installation. This is popular with clients since it simplifies the interface and shifts the risk to the main contractor.

From the contractor's view, a particularly risky feature is the interface  with the installer, and indeed installation contractors are adept at extracting additional money under contract arrangements of this type.  The usual approach is to charge for delays (actual or perceived) at the very high day rates applicable   to heavy marine equipment, and the highest levels or coordination and management are required to avoid this.    Hence the main contractors have had to become more  competent at managing their risks in this area.

On a recent international EPCI contract, in which a range of platforms were built in the UK and the Middle East, the project coordination has to be optimised to minimise risks and costs.  A comprehensive risk model was constructed, for various scenarios, and this was used initially to assist in the selection of the installer (the model gave the expected total cost for each option).

The outcome of the project was close to risk model's predictions.

Advanced Project Techniques will be pleased to advise on this and other risk management applications.

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